Gold bars on a graph

Volatility Explained: Why Does the Price of Gold Fluctuate?

The gold market is often subject to fluctuations. But what most people don't know is why the gold market fluctuates. Different people have different speculations. Many of them believe that the fluctuation in the market is because of inflation, while others believe that social issues have a massive impact on the gold market.

These factors may be valid reasons for the fluctuations, but they are not the biggest reason why. If you are interested in the gold market, you must understand the reasons why. In this article, you will learn what affects the gold market and its effects on your investments.

Three main factors affect the fluctuations of gold prices:

  • Supply
  • Demand
  • Investor Behavior

These factors can affect gold prices individually or simultaneously as they are interconnected. For example, when the demand is high, that will automatically increase the investor's interest, and if the supply is low, then the prices are bound to increase. This is how gold prices fluctuate.

Investor Behavior

For many people, gold prices are undeterred by inflation. The prices may remain stable even if the inflation rate is much higher than it should be. As there are few chances of gold prices going down, many people believe Gold to be a better investment. During economic instability, many people invest in Gold to save their money and prevent it from devaluing. When investors start investing in Gold, the prices of gold increase automatically.

This is why it is often believed that inflation can have a big impact on the prices of Gold when in reality, the investors are the ones who are putting all their money into Gold. Investors' behavior is why the complete chain is disrupted, and gold prices increase.

Effects of Dollar Valuation

Ten years from 1998, the value of the U.S. dollar fell significantly. This pushed people to look into other investment areas, such as Gold. Investing in Gold at that time was a much more secure option. More and more people wanted to invest in Gold, which increased prices by threefold. It increased to almost $1,000 for an ounce of Gold. The prices kept increasing till 2012. It was initially a couple of hundred dollars an ounce and went over to $2000 within 15 years.

If the economy is strong, investors won't feel the need to invest in Gold, and that lack of interest will help decrease the value of Gold. This is how investor behavior impacts the value of Gold. The more investors are interested in buying Gold, the higher the prices will be.

Supply

All the mined Gold is still present today. There is a lot of mined Gold today, and it is priced high. But in recent times, gold mining is becoming more and more difficult and an expensive procedure.

To find usable Gold, miners have to go the extra mile and deeper into the mines. This is because all the Gold that was accessible was being circulated. The lack of usable Gold on the surface has pushed the industry to increase its prices as the mining process has become more difficult.

As the production is expensive, so is the selling price. However, The stockpiled Gold is much higher than the quantity of Gold that is mined now. With the decrease in supply and increase in demand, the prices increase.

Demand

The demand for a certain thing is always important when it comes to the influence on price. The more a product is in demand, the higher sellers can price it. There was a lot of gold investment between 1998 and 2012, so the prices were at their all-time high. If there was no increase in demand, the prices wouldn't have increased to $2000 per ounce.

Investors take great interest in Gold as its value usually increases with time. The fluctuation in prices is not very significant; even if it is, the decrease is extremely rare. In most cases, it only goes down by a couple of hundred dollars. Even though there is not a lot of demand, the value of Gold remains stable.

Central Banks and Their Effect on Gold Prices

As mentioned previously, several factors affect the price of Gold. These factors include investor behavior, supply, and demand. While these factors are important, there are other contributors to the increase in prices of Gold, such as the amount of Gold kept in the central bank.

Most central banks have a high amount of Gold with them. These reserves do exceptionally well when the economy is doing well, and then the banks shrink their gold holdings. Gold is not of great use to the banks when the economy is at its high. It becomes like dead weight as the Gold does not interest the investors as much as it used to. The central bank no longer needs to have large gold reserves, which decreases the price per ounce. They start selling more Gold into the market so they can create fluctuations. According to the Washington Agreement, banks are not permitted to sell more than 400 metric tons of Gold per year so they can keep a cap on gold prices. The selling of Gold by banks has a severe impact on the costs of the Gold.

The Effects of Monetary Policy on Gold Prices

The monetary policy is also very important in the fluctuation of gold prices. The Federal Reserve controls the monetary policy. This further influences the money supply and decides the rate of inflation. Gold is said to be an inflation hedge and therefore becomes increasingly expensive with the rise in inflation. The high inflation rates do not mean that gold prices are low. With the devaluation of the U.S. dollar, many people make a panic move and invest in Gold so they can stop their money from getting devalued.

The increase of interest in gold investment increases the demand and therefore causes an increase in the overall prices. This price increase is not because of inflation but because of investors' greater interest and high demands.

Geopolitical Uncertainty: How World Tensions Influence Gold Prices

People invest in Gold so they can survive when the economy is going through turbulence. Moreover, geopolitical problems and other socioeconomic affairs can push people to invest in Gold. This is because Gold is considered to be a crisis commodity and can help people stay afloat. Gold has been a great investment for people in times of crisis.

To prevent getting stuck in a crossfire, when two countries go to war against each other, the citizens ensure their economic stability by investing in Gold. Gold is universal and retains its value which is a great way to ensure your wealth no matter what times may come. Their money will remain safe even if their country's economy goes downhill. The increase in demand causes gold prices to increase.

Many people rush to invest in Gold when you lose faith in your government. The loss of trust can be due to multiple reasons, even if the circumstances are not entirely in the hands of the government. Many people may even have political reservations, which may lead to their distrust of the government. The distrust pushes people to invest in Gold and stay safe if bad times are coming their way.

One good example is Brexit, where the prices of Gold increased significantly as the people were not very fond of the U.K.'s decision to leave the European Union.

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